- Fashion experts told BI a recession would bring neutral colors, conservative cuts, and minimalism.
- During turndowns, fashion “tends to recoil into the familiar” — like quiet luxury and basics.
- Trump’s trade war with China could scramble the entire sector, not just fast fashion.
Get ready to go back to basics.
With the odds of a recession rising, the fashion industry will likely move with the economic winds. Trend forecasters, fashion writers, and academics told Business Insider that neutral tones, conservative silhouettes, and minimalism will probably dominate the runways and retail windows if a dip happens.
“Recessions tend to flatten aspiration,” Sarah Owen, a trend forecaster and social scientist, told BI in a statement. “When the future feels uncertain, fashion tends to recoil into the familiar.”
Recessions of the past offer fashion clues
From the 1930s to 2008, history’s economic downturns hint at the trends to come.
“Past recessions see fashion trends get quieter,” said Monisha Klar, the director of fashion at trend forecasting company WGSN. They generally lead to a rise in blacks, whites, neutrals, and grays, said Vincent Quan, a professor at the Fashion Institute of Technology.
During the Great Depression, for example, hemlines got longer, Owen said. After the dot-com recession in 2001, she said people turned to safe Americana, while the Great Recession lent itself to "'recession-core minimalism.'"
"Entrenchment. Less daring designs. Revivals of the past as opposed to some wild new thing," Anne Higonnet, an art history professor at Barnard College who teaches a course on clothing, said when describing the trends of previous recessions.
Stealth wealth is likely here to stay
Quiet luxury has been on the rise for years, and the experts BI spoke to said it probably won't go anywhere if a full-blown recession hits. They said the uber-rich will likely continue buying luxury clothing since they're not as financially squeezed by economic downturns, but that the clothing will still reflect the country's mood.
"It was seen as poor taste to show off your wealth because so many people had lost a fortune," Dana Thomas, author of "Deluxe: How Luxury Lost Its Luster," said of the post-2008 luxury environment.
Even if the country's wealthiest continue to buy understated pieces, there are signs that luxury houses will feel a pinch. LVMH, which owns brands including Louis Vuitton and Dior, didn't hit first-quarter sales estimates. Hermés announced that it will raise prices in the US as it braces for how tariffs could impact its growth.
"Luxury won't vanish, ever, it just gets quieter," Owen said.
People will go back to basics
For shoppers who aren't spending thousands of dollars on a shirt, a recession will still probably mean less flashy clothing — and a focus on versatile items.
"There'll be a flight toward value," Quan, the FIT professor, said. He thinks basics that can be worn multiple times will spike in popularity.
"You see an abrupt shift away from maximalist ideas, as consumers seek products more aligned with budgeting for everyday life," Klar from WGSN said, predicting that office-inspired looks will remain popular.
Resale will likely thrive, three of the experts said, but middle-market, affordable luxury companies will probably suffer. Derek Guy, an internet-famous menswear writer, said those customers might downgrade to fast fashion, but luxury shoppers won't downgrade from the top.
"Mid-tier luxury is always the first to feel the squeeze," trend forecaster Owen said. "It's neither essential nor status-y enough to justify the spend."
Tariffs are scrambling the whole sector
President Donald Trump's trade war with China has particular ramifications for the sector — the US imported $19.6 billion in textiles and clothing from the country in 2023, according to Census Bureau data.
Higonnet said that though some clothing production has moved from China to surrounding countries, like Vietnam and Cambodia, this could be the "biggest blow" the fast fashion industry has faced.
Such companies are "not going to be able to just build factories in the US and maintain their prices," she said.
It's not just fast fashion that will feel the pain if Trump's tariffs remain in place.
"One misconception that people have is that China just makes a bunch of cheap crap and that we're going to see a shift toward higher-end clothing," Guy said. Chinese factories, he said, manufacture everything from $5 Shein tops to $1,200 hand-knitted Double RL cashmere sweaters.
"They're not using a Chinese factory because they're buying a hand-knitted cardigan for $2. It's because that specific place that they use makes the best cardigans in that style," he said.
Consumers might see lower quality or a "skyrocketing of prices" if companies have to move factories, according to Guy.
With economic uncertainty seeming like the only certainty, everything from the cheapest polyester tops to the most luxurious cashmere blends will slink into their own versions of fashion safety.
As Thomas put it, "If this carries on like it is, we're going to just keep wearing beige."